First, what is investment research? We can think of it as the process of thinking and planning before taking action. In simple terms, it’s about how to choose projects, decide which airdrop activities to participate in, and which to forgo, as we cannot participate in all projects. For example, why do some people see substantial returns from the projects they participate in, while my involvement yields minimal benefits? Suppose each person can participate in ten projects per week, their success rate might be 70%, while mine is only 30%. This is the core of investment research. Nowadays, the airdrop industry is no longer an era of casual participation or mindless following. Even with experts selflessly sharing, it is difficult for us to track all opportunities. Especially with the rise of content mining, distinguishing between true and false information is challenging. Therefore, how to filter projects and invest effort becomes a key issue.
1. Timing (Early Stage)#
Early participation ensures compliance with airdrop snapshot rules; otherwise, subsequent efforts may not bridge the gap.
“The earlier you participate in all dApps within the ecosystem, the more potential rewards you can obtain.”
Early involvement is crucial; if I miss the early stage, I would rather give up on the project than waste my efforts.
Three Examples:#
- ① In the strknet project, I joined too late and missed the minimum airdrop criteria by just a few days.
- ② In the zkbridge project, I only entered after the Panda King Odyssey ended, causing me to miss the key Panda King NFT airdrop standards and only receive a small amount of low guarantee.
- ③ In the initia project, I was unable to join later stages because I did not participate in the first phase, resulting in zero returns.
2. Investment Amount and Team Endorsement (Market Consensus)#
- Projects that have raised over ten million yuan and are led by top institutions like a16z and Binance Labs often have more generous airdrops.
- Projects that involve or are endorsed by key components of public chains (like DEX), such as Jupiter on Solana and Walrus on Sui, also tend to have higher premiums when launching airdrops.
The amount invested and the team must have strong backing (this also reflects the first-level market's support and market consensus).
- ① For example, projects with funding exceeding ten million, led by a16z or Binance, are usually more reliable. As a leading trading platform in the crypto market, Binance has a higher probability of listing its invested projects, which can bring high premiums and exit liquidity.
- ② In terms of team support, if key components of public chains like DEX (equivalent to the "hands and feet" of public chains) receive participation or endorsement from public chain teams, the wealth effect is often significant. For instance, Jupiter's position in Solana and Walrus's position in Sui lead to higher premiums during airdrops, based on the logic that projects with ample funding are more likely to be generous with airdrops.
3. Track Imagination (Mainstream + Core)#
- Aligning with current mainstream narratives (like L2 in 2023 and DEX in 2024) helps attract hot money and community participation.
- “Content mining” is set to become a hot track in 2025, where everyone can publish articles to earn rewards, thereby driving enthusiasm and capital inflow.
Track imagination (aligning with mainstream and core, which is also the style of the current market's profit effect).
For example, mainstream narratives like L2 for Ethereum scaling in 2023, DEX in 2024, and content mining in 2025 (where anyone can become a KOL by conducting project research and publishing articles to earn rewards) can attract speculative capital and participation, enhancing community activity and popularity.
4. Cost Accounting (Difficulty Level)#
- For small players with limited funds, projects with low thresholds and no lock-up are optimal, losing only time and not principal.
- Over-staking or relying on sign-in interactions can lead to total loss from a single contract accident.
Cost accounting (profit-loss ratio). If a project is good but I cannot participate, it may not be a good choice. For example, sign-in projects are unfavorable for those without technical means; staking projects may lack safety and risk control for small fund users, potentially resulting in nine profitable instances out of ten, with one theft by the project party leading to total loss. Therefore, I prefer projects with lower costs, losing only time rather than principal.
To succeed in airdrops, one needs to carefully select projects in the early stage, continuously track and execute in the mid-stage, and only then can one reap the rewards in the later stage. As the returns in the airdrop industry decline in 2024, the number of participants in airdrops in 2025 will decrease overall, with more people exiting this long-cycle, high-investment, time-consuming activity. Remaining participants gradually shift towards targeted exchange airdrops or low-investment KOL airdrops. For those who continue to persist, investment research is no longer just about looking at funding and teams, but requires more strategies. Perhaps when this model fades away, new narratives will emerge, but for now, we can only continue to try. Only by participating personally can one judge the quality of projects and identify scams. However, that high-certainty, low-difficulty, time-saving method of airdrops that allows manual operation of hundreds of accounts may no longer exist. Where do we go from here? This is a question worth pondering.
from——@Beijing Teacher
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🔥 Related Reading#
🔥 Useful Tools for Alpha Finding#
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